le20012015 E

Hello all http:// creachmichelblog.wordpress.com/ French, English

http:// creachmichel2014.WordPress.com Italian, Spanish

http:// lebretonblog.WordPress.com / English, Deutschland

Point the finger, Customs (of the veil and other Muslims, and as this avoid slander Catholicism, and try to put the french one against the other, this is what ‘ realizes masoned franc mentality)

French trying to copy its American sister… what! many Americans know that the Republican Party and the democratic parties are the same, and that if a Democrat as hillary clinton wants to stand in the presidential election, it is that it must be in agreement with the Congress, is as the left and the right in France.

Leave, internet, quiet one, when I told you gentlemen ladies of the Jewish people, as it doesn’t actually peoples, that ‘ I in and we want, but to these either saying leaders, inter alia in the CSA (Chair Olivier schrameck), commentMESSIEURS ladies want you that we appreciate you, when, some from between you fuck shit, and two after the various lies, your community has made, rue popincourt, the young woman with the swastika of the metro, and others, and three, Minister FILIPPETTI has already refused you to the CSA, when, she was stationed, the monopoly and thus censorship, that you want to select on the net, which does not prevent you to exercise on your different search engines, gentlemen ladies, the French and others from other countries, that I respect very much, be aware, (in any case, the sorts of videos, and censorship to hinder a prospective candidate or, on the contrary to help a candidate it works too well in France) that when you go through google and you type youtube, (blatant example, exercised censorship) and type for example, example

MARINE LEPEN therefore (GOOGLE/YOUTUBE/Navy LEPEN) on Navy page, you’ll see videos, that we want do you see, if you go to YAHOO, Idem, if you tap on FACEBOOK yet IDEM, you should know that when you go there, you end up with cartoons, however censorship is still there, remember you yesterday on video from KEMI SEBA (proof; Kemi Seba: « The hidden face of the case Boko Haram (Africom Brezynski, Plan Yinon) » , it come back. , which proves and, this cache cache evidenced that they have a not very clear on the conscience weight and therefore, they are far from being transparent in the facts, and that those are very bad clowns ago 1 month and a half, roughly, this applied censorship the interrnet, was more than blatant on google, yahoo, facbook , on (google/youtube/Navy lepen) and there were altogether approximately ¾ of the videos, which had nothing to do with Navy LEPEN, the only link on the various videos, there were is the first name of Navy was, everything is good to establish a dictatorship, without being one.In short, spend, I heard in the media, that the keufs had the equivalent of 30cartouches/year for if lead, no, but it of a GAGs, gave their pistols, ball or lead, while you y summers, ca you will cost cheaper.GAG, not, but, frankly, what do you want that they fuck with 30 bastos, when it is trained, it is unlimited, there are days, or we’ll use 4, and other days, 300 what is, this delirium, I know, that the 36 quai, is a former chicken coop, but, I begin to understand why, they called my father and his colleagues, chickens, or send a case of roller knowing that the guys of the division are lost and also knowing that the enemy does not prisoners, P-T-N, it, it’s the P-T-N mentality of the bureaucrats, guys who, on a spinning a legion of honor that was not intended to give her child because it was not wise, chais not when there’s a without ammunition, it serves what , Oh I know, to style the coffee, the coffee machine, you had to think!

GO, since there is

Died laughing, but to piss on, open your eyes, either saying a rise RECORD(on dirait dele de vélo), VALLS and Holland, and yeah, Yes, it is in that it him e s the wheel.No, but, frankly, the carriers are strike out to defend their Panzanese, and there would be a rise in scores, GAGs! You do not fuck the world printing.BFM, the liar, Ouh!, the liar

Oh the liar, we balance 40% for Valls and 61% for Holland, think a little, knowing, that it is a collective, which I signed the petition

You can do what you want, it is a party, the people, and the Muslims around the world know aptly and fine, Israel, usa, Freemasonry and the European, Holland, valls, sarkozyet his clique of kapo and all his behind collabos, but that the french people, what it has shown does not share Ma, but then not all your ideas and your liars and Masonic words.

Holland… DÉGAGE! It is spring FRANCAI…Petition

La France not insult person, ensures François Hollande , that is true, but Holland and valls were insulted Muslims

Holland is right when he says that the France and the french people insulting person.
This summer we presented you a petition drafted by a young activist.
This petition is the first to request the dismissal of Holland, by way of referendum. After the text of the petition, that many have surely signed without reading it in its entirety!

you have been more than 30,000 to sign the petition. Bravo and thank you!, already almost 2 years ago, this means what, according to you, knowing at the municipal, you morflés to the European, you morflés the presidential?

the great unknown, and it is not a constant, it is variable X, the great architect should know

November 2, 2013

M says:

We want more of you, you dégages!

The growing popularity of François Hollande leapt 21 pointsReuters, to, what, ask, or, it the tronuve

Petition: Holland resignation!

REFERENDUM INITIATIVE SHARED
THE IMPEACHMENT OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC
FRANCOIS HOLLANDE

We the people, ask our members to act in our names because appreciation of failure lies with the Parliament and therefore an authority policy, i.e. the High Court of Justice.
We remind that one-fifth of the members of Parliament either 185 deputies or senators supported by 1/10th of the registered voters may request the holding of a referendum
• Knowing the facts such as to justify this procedure have no need to be qualified as criminal or civil misconduct.
• Knowing that many breaches of the duty of reserve which is hers were demonstrated publicly.
• Knowing that because of his behavior, damage to the function of the President are now visible internationally.

We accuse Mr. Holland a deplorable of the France overseas image, publicly deceiving on the history of a country, ignoring the respect for local customs.
We accuse Mr. Holland have neither national nor international stature and have even not genuine cohesion within his Government.
We accuse Mr. Holland not to be the President of a people, but a party of Lobbies.
We accuse Mr. Holland to impose such visions by forgetting the people, and the reforms promised and expected while unemployment continues to rise, that retirees soon cannot be paid.
We accuse Mr. Holland to any reform that would allow the economic rehabilitation of the country in a sustainable and stable.
We accuse Mr. Hollande ruining FRANCE with taxes and waste

We the people, are objectives and know perfectly that there is little chance that François Holland is found guilty but its removal would prevent other disasters or worsening a situation already critical.
Also, we the people, solemnly asked our deputies to act on our behalf as they must do in order to stop the recession economic, moral and intellectual France lack relaunch its growth.

We therefore create this petition which must collect the maximum of signatures so that our members are listening to US and act like they have for our sake, for the people.

Sign our petition
To encourage our members to submit a Referendum initiative on shared
To remove the current President of the Republic, François Holland, finally for the good of the people. »

THANKS TO YOU FOR YOUR MANY SIGNATURES

Petition Holland resignation! Holland releases

Success for the heart artificial Carmat: the 2nd patient was able to go home

Hats down, gentlemen, I knew that much, would work, and BRAVO, Prof

Manifestations of road around big cities in France

PARIS (Reuters) – a movement of lorry drivers action resulted Monday in significant slowdowns around several towns in France, but some of the dams were raised late in the day.

Fifty blocks or operations snails have been conducted by the inter-trade union CGT – FO and CFE – CGC intending to influence wage negotiations in the sector.

Some began as early as Sunday evening around Bordeaux or on the device from Caen (Calvados), where truckers leave pass cars, according to the national Center for road information.

In the Northern Department, snails operations took place on motorways A1, A21, A22 around Lille. The road rolled idling up to the multimodal platform of Dourges on the A1.

Same situation autour from Marseille, where trucks drove the steps on the three highways that serve the city, generating more than thirty kilometers from restraint.

In the Paris suburbs, the access to the river port of Gennevilliers (Hauts-de-Seine) have been blocked.

The road blocking access to the area of activity of Cestas near Bordeaux since Sunday evening lifted the camp Monday afternoon, was learned from the strikers.

They headed towards Bassens, common where spreads part of the port of Bordeaux for a General Assembly planned to organize one or several new lockups in the evening.

Trade unions, who are demanding an increase of 5% of the wages, have called for targeting priority oil and fuels, central purchasing deposits and major routes, to essentially « makers ».

Employers Meanwhile proposes an increase of 1-2%, putting forward the economic difficulties of the carriers, the context of low growth and increasing competition from carriers who came from Eastern Europe.

(Yann Le Rakesh, with Pierre Savary in Lille, Jean-François Rosnoblet in Marseille, Claude Canellas in Bordeaux, edited by Gérard Bon)

In the United States, Democrats accuse of promoting the surge in the price of gasoline refiners

Several Senate Democrats Tuesday asked the administration opening an investigation into the role of U.S. refineries in the soaring prices which penalizes American motorists.

on the same subject

While in France, the left requires that the oil companies are taxed, across the Atlantic, the Democrats propose another method to penalize those who, according to them, have fostered soaring gasoline prices to boost their profits.

The Democratic Senate majority leader Harry Reid and his colleagues Richard Durbin, Claire McCaskill, Charles Schumer and Patty Murray have written Tuesday to the Federal Commission of trade (FTC) to demand an investigation into a « possible price fixing » by U.S. refiners, which, for most are controlled by the large oil of the country companies.

Margins which have almost doubled in five months

These elected officials denounced the « record profits » made by oil companies in recent months. The price of a gallon now stands above $ 4, or a little more than a dollar per litre. According to Senators the margin for refiners would reach 80 cents per gallon (3.78 liters) compared to 42 cents in January. « They have clearly reaped important benefits, nothing that in deciding to deliver less gasoline, » Ms. McCaskill acknowledged at a press conference.

At the same time, the Senator notes that American oil exports are « at their best level since 1945 », another factor that it would promote the increase in the price of gasoline at the pump.

This initiative by Democrats comes at a time when the Senate was examining a Bill introduced by Democrats that removes Federal aid to the major oil companies in form of tax advantages.

The truck drivers on strike for wages maintain pressure

Blockages of industrial zones and petroleum deposits, snail and filter dams, especially in Western operations: truckers on strike for wages maintained the pressure Monday, on the eve of a meeting of negotiations that promises to be « very tense » with employers. Duration: 00:58

The Macron law adopted in Committee to the Assembly, normal, another kid in the back, or how to make the things you want, but which not only interested all the peuplecomme sarkozy with the constitution and other, the Act of 2005 on the FM, and article 26, who is in the Government, AH!OF Freemasons, the century and the grand orient of France, and others (I know, you know, but it is for the international smile you do not shoot), in 2 years, we in rappalera

AHHHhhh!This is for you trainiez to repondrevouliez past the macron in Committee in the Assembly Act, Ah, I suspected, but here I am on! you etesmauvais, hollandedegage !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Some American companies more to CEOs paid taxes: study (taxes)

En) – twenty-five of the 100 highest paid U.S. CEOs received last year more that their companies paid in federal income tax, a study of compensation by a Washington think-tank, said on Wednesday.

At a time when lawmakers are facing difficult choices in a quest to reduce the national debt, the Institute for Policy Studies, a left-leaning, said group found many companies spent more on lobbying as they did on taxes.

The top Democrat on the Oversight Committee of the House of representatives, Elijah Cummings, called for hearings on executive compensation «  » to examine the extent to which problems in the remuneration of Chief executives that led to the economic crisis continue to exist today.

Several companies mentioned in the report have challenged his methodology and said they paid all due taxes.

General Electric spokesman Andrew Williams called the study « inaccurate » and noted that it did not include significant taxes on income paid in 2010 for previous years, or state taxes paid. « GE pay what it owes, » wrote in an e-mail response to questions.

Boeing spokesman Chaz Bickers said the study is « simply wrong ».

Instead « Federal US current tax expenses declared » Boeing’s $13 million addresses IP used, he said a better approximation of the taxes the company paid would be $360 million that it reported that its payments of tax on net income, most of which, said, was federal.

« On federal funds tax payments last year we paid hundreds of million, » Bickers told Reuters. The company received an appropriation of $371 million from the Government year last for the overpayment of taxes in the past and added 5,000 jobs in the United States this year said Bickers, in part because federal tax relief.

The Institute compared CEO pay in the United States paid current taxes, excluding foreign taxes and national and local that can has been paid, as well as deferred taxes which can often be much greater than current taxes paid.

Raison d’etre of the Group was that American taxes paid are the best approximation in public documents to which companies may have actually written a cheque for the last year. He said deferred taxes may or may not be paid.

The accounting used in SEC filings differs from accounting used to calculate what is due on a company Declaration of. The number of IPS or the figure quoted by Boeing exactly equal to the verification letter to the IRS, States Scott Dyreng, Assistant Professor of the Duke Antoine Fuqua School of Business who studies corporate income tax, and however the companies could disclose the figure, don’t have, and do not then

AVERAGE OF $16.7 MILLION

Compensation for the 25 CEOs paid to tax an average exceeding $16.7 million, according to the study, compared with a average of $10.8 million for S & P 500 CEOs.Parmi companies at the top of the list of IPS:

* eBay CEO John Donahoe made $12.4 million, but reported that a refund of $131 million on its current 2010 US taxes.

* Boeing, which has paid CEO Jim McNerney $13.8 million, sent to $13 million in federal income taxes and spent $20.8 million on lobbying and campaign spending

* General Electric where CEO Jeff Immelt earned $15.2 million in 2010, while the company received a refund federal $3.3 billion and has invested $41.8 million in its own lobbying campaigns and policies.

If the companies come from different industries, their tax breaks come in two main areas.

Two-thirds of businesses surveyed kept their taxes low by using offshore subsidiaries in tax havens such as Bermuda, Singapore and the Luxembourg. Other companies have benefited from accelerated depreciation.

Shareholders responded favourably when the companies in which they invest keep a record of low taxation through legal means, which will benefit earnings. But Chuck Collins, a principal investigator IPS and co-author of the report, said it is a mistake.

« I think it’s an exhibition of weakness in a company if their profitability depends on their accounts and not on making better widgets », he said.

In previous reports, said Collins, out-size CEO pay was often a red flag for the bigger problems to come. The IPS has been brings a report of earnings for 18 years. Among those whose leaders have been high in the past, only to have salary list their business falter: Tyco, Enron and WorldCom.

debts and growth in the USA: the Keynesian illusions – part 2

We want to examine in this paper a simple question: to what extent is the US economy an economy of debt. The thing seems obvious, the USA saw increase their national debt total more strongly since more than thirty.

The debt of households, General Government, non-financial and financial corporations has continued to increase, the country gets into debt with the outside by accumulating a net debt position (assets held abroad by the USA – held on the USA by foreign assets) more increasingly important (7500 Md from $ in 2013).

However, this idea that we have often deserves an audit. Evidence – especially in statistical economics – are some surprises. The data may arise questions. Connecting the GDP growth and debt (s), we were surprised by what we found. GDP is well drawn by debt, but it should be noted that, and especially must be the relationship of debt and crises, of which the highlight was the crisis of 2008. The USA is still not released.

This paper also fits in the continuity of a small series of contribution challenging the Keynesian idea that would suffice to play a redistributive taxation or involve the public debt to revive activity. We have already expressed doubts about the use of a redistributive taxation by raising questions about its implementation.

There is no hidden treasure or solution for the taxation of capital gains from the sale of assets to wear hand if growth is patrimonialisée. It remains to determine whether it would have been possible – as we invite Krugman and Stiglitz – out of the crisis by making a stronger role at the request of pacemaker activity. The dizzying growth of the federal debt makes this already questionable option.

But it is the problem of the general debt of the country and the effects of this debt on the growth of wealth that can bring a harsh light on this question. By linking the level of GDP and the debt of the country, we have tried to provide answers. And to our surprise, the answer elements raised new questions.

We have chosen this setting in relation, since it seems the simpler; It also offers the possibility of reasoning in an orderly manner by distinguishing the dynamics – real or supposed – different types of debt on growth. It is on this path we encounter somewhat unexpectedly attacks. The fall of this paper suggests that attempts to resolve the crisis implemented by the FED-Treasury couple are an illusion in the medium term, it may induce a new crisis in the next few years.

A – debt and growth momentum. On this first graph, we have included GDP and the evolution of the debt of the USA market. market debt represents the total indebtedness of the country. It is the result of the addition of the debts of all the players economic public and private Americans. This first graph to see that there is a steady increase in U.S. national debt and that there is no immediate and simple relationship between the increase of GDP and debt. To examine the question of the relationship between GDP and debt, we expressed the total debt of the USA in multiple of GDP. More GDP is pulled by debt, the ratio of GDP / debt of the USA tends to increase. It was enough to divide the total debt of the countries by GDP and graphically illustrate the influence of the total debt of the USA on economic growth.

First evidence, the USA are more and more indebted to maintain their growth. In 1980, the debt represented 1.9 times the GDP, in 1999 this indebtedness was 4.7 times GDP. Second evidence, GDP in times of recession was little affected by changes in the ratio of debt. In 1981-82 and 1991-92, the economic difficulties of the American economy do not translate by heavy disturbance of the interaction between the debt and the GDP.

It seems that during the first 20 years of the liberal revolution debt has stimulated more growth without that their interaction gives rise to major point turbulence.

Crises are not the correlate of the evolutions of the debt: the curve shown widely, it is not struck between 1980 and 2000. At best can we note a growing importance of debt on growth from 1994. There still no major crisis doesn’t explain that the slope is steeper after that date.

It should be noted that the collapse of the debt-to-GDP ratio in 1995 does not correspond to a phase of recession. These observations suggest that the role of stimulation of the growth of the economy by the debt has been a constant knowing independent minor fluctuations of recessions.

Conversely, can think that recessive phenomena were not intimately linked to a contraction of debt which appears to be a constant and a positive condition of growth. The decisive break came after 2000. When the country’s debt falls, the U.S. economy shrinks strongly. It is shows the curve at the time of the crisis of the Millennium (2000-2003). This is what it still shows after the crisis of 2008-2009.

This decisive break also occurs at the time of the times. It is through an accelerated growth of the debt that the recovery can take place from 2003 or after the black year of 2009. This relationship between debt crisis and recovery indicates two things: growth depends on more profound and intimate of the stimulating role of the debt crisis of the Millennium.

We see it as a sign of a growing weakening of the American economy to produce value in relation to the incentives it receives from the national debt. We have explained at length on this blog that the U.S. economy had reached a limit of creation of value at the end of the 1990s.

In a situation of underaccumulation of capital productive on bottom of resource depletion of growth substituent the industry services, unfit to mobilized its population of working age while working hours declined and service jobs were less creators of value, making play productivity against the maintenance of a level of employment, at risk for these reasons to dry up its opportunitiesthe American economy has fled its difficulties in debt.

Debt and increasing financialisation of the economy, refinancing of external imbalances and growth of the value of the heritages of households, call for the credit consumption and consumption of capital gains from asset disposals coming stimulate the consumption of Americans of average, affluent and rich layers pulled growth up on bottom of rising income inequality ever stronger.

The credit, i.e. debt, has been the responsibility of consumerism who has managed this feat: make forget the major part of the population that their income grew more slowly than those of the Top ten. A heritage funded credit was forgetting the worsening of inequalities. The reactivity of the GDP to debt translated so the existence of artificial overgrowth debt more and stronger allowing economic growth, make machine-driven this debt is an economy whose dynamic cocaine disappeared during the late 1990s under the dual action of increasing deindustrialization and a saturation of the market of services in turn unable to shoot growth.

The U.S. economy would have the strongly slow down as soon as the early 2000s, the crises of the Millennium and 2007 showed how much the U.S. economy became reactive debt that artificially boosts growth in the recovery period and accentuates the effects of crises as soon as GDP-debt relationships are disrupted. Crises have become financial until the early 2000s.

Before crises were not translating the growing fragility of the relationship between debt, capital productivity, capital accumulation accumulated and wealth creation, contraction of economic activity and lack of capacity of production of wealth in the U.S. economy. Of solutions to advocate debt harder – be it public or private, that it emanates enterprises, households or federal State – to get out the country more quickly from the crisis could lead to the outbreak of a crisis even more serious than that will occur in the coming years if growth resumes.

The curve already draws this risk. Since 2010, U.S. GDP has grown poorly despite a very strong increase in particularly sensitive debt after 2012-2013. It is by finding a high debt-to-GDP ratio that growth resumed as early as 2010 (4.34), this ratio found its level of 2000 in 2009 and helps the U.S. economy collapse.

As of 2010, the debt/GDP ratio of 2007 is found, the slight decline in 2011 is corrected in 2012. The level of debt supporting the growth of GDP has never been as strong as in 2013: 5.2. To support the growth of GDP in 2013, should a debt/GDP ratio of 5.2 times against 1.9 in 1980.

The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 3.3 in thirty years. The deleterious effects of a low accumulation of productive capital on a background of unfavourable to the USA global labour division did enter the US economy in a lasting era of disruption from the turn of the 21st century. This disturbance is that the expression of deep fracture of growth whose effects are now fully visible. Financialisation and growing debt are symptoms of these malfunctions while the instruments to defer the effects.

B – The increasing grip of debt on growth – general dysregulation of growth.

Examination of the relationship between growth in GDP and debt/GDP Ratio are rich learning. Between 1980 and 1992 (Chart A), GDP variations are not correlated to the debt. Debt can shoot growth, it is not even the engine, the productive economy still has sufficient potential to ensure a wealth creation autonomous of the penetration of the debt and credit to the heart of the dynamics of the economy.

Just to be convinced to examine more closely this graph. Between 1980 and 1992, the debt-to-GDP Ratio is still too low, the national debt of the USA progresses too weakly, he spent this period of 1, 8-1, 9 to 2.7. The U.S. economy overall remains an economy of production, it is not yet a financialized economy or a general debt is at the heart of the whole system of production of wealth. Everything changes during the period 1992-1999 (B on the graph), the growth of GDP goes into phase with the Empunt-GDP Ratio.

The debt-to-GDP Ratio increases dramatically in a relatively short time. This ratio wins upward effect from 1995. One can divide this period into two distinct phases: prior to 1995, the ratio is still in a moderate increase in logic: 92 2.7, 2.8 in 1994. The climbing begins in 1995 with a ratio of 3.1 that is worn in 1999 to 4.2. Growth is connected to the debt, even less struck after 1995 debt anime still more strongly.

This second period coincides with the failover of the U.S. economy in a financial economics which becomes the heart of economic growth. This grip of growing debt and finance growth is inseparable from the mode of accumulation of capital in the USA. Until the mid-1990s, growth and investment succeed in mobilizing a growing American part while the substitution of services to the industry tends to make this less creative production of wealth per head.

The stagnation in the participation rate of the U.S. population from the second half of the years should have resulted in a slowdown in growth. This growth should slow even more strongly that the national productive capital accumulation rate is under pressure of the Top ten which is enriched by falling investment and organizing more and more unequal sharing of income. This slowdown does not occur, as the debt of the USA allows to place the US economy overspeed.

The overgrowth of GDP then rule on debt. Hence a rapid increase of GDP between 1995 and 1999 contemporary a GDP/debt ratio stronger and stronger. Where also a widening of the external deficits refinanced by the net capital flows, increasing deficit explained largely by over-consumption financed by a capital gain on disposals of assets, joint credit for consumption, artificial inflation of the value of heritage…

This predominance of finance on growth appears total after 2000. Whenever the GDP/debt ratio is falling, there are sharp drop in growth, is the case in 2000-2002 (C-1) and 2008 (C3). Conversely, whenever the GDP/debt ratio rises, the GDP growth is stimulated. Is the case between 2010 and 2013 (C-4 on the chart), including from 2010, the crisis still resorts the effects of growth of debt in 2009.

The 2003-2007 period seems to resist our argument. Our thesis works between 2003 and 2004. But between 2005 and 2007, there was an evolution in the rise in the debt Ratio / GDP and a fall in growth. Perhaps this is the sign of a deeper evolution and an entry into a new phase of the driving role of the national debt on economic growth.

The period 2000-2013 is distinguished by a worrying development of the relationship between growth and debt. The debt-to-GDP ratio remains still clearly upward-facing, but GDP growth is oriented downward since 2000. It means that the debt has more efficiency marked on the growth of GDP as previously.

This loss of efficiency is visible in C – 2 as well as C – 4. The growth in national debt doesn’t work anymore, because the financial phase of US growth (1992-200) has exhausted its effects. Debt and real economy walking backwards, the growth in debt manifest since 2000 the limits of an artificially sustained economy by period of underaccumulation of capital debt. General debt of the country is the necessary counterpart of an economy whose too low national productive investment can no longer support the level of artificially stimulated growth.

We only stopped to support this thesis by saying that the US recovery was in tow of the public credit. But this difficulty of public credit to ensure the resumption should be seen in a wider context: the growing difficulty of the American economy grow strongly under the influence of a growing debt while the productive effort of the country is insufficient.

It can be seen growing disturbances in C2 more weakly repeating C – 4. It is at this point that we do not believe in Keynesian policy effectiveness as a solution to the crisis. Debt resumed at C – 4, but growth remains uncertain and it is struck while the national debt is again ascendant. Growth of debt in what form it is not could have only limited effect on growth.

The crisis is not a crisis subsequent to the failure of the application: solvent demand of households should be lower for cleaner growth, a stronger household demand due to transfer public – funded credit – would not respond to the causes of the crisis, it would be a provisional remedy of little effectiveness. These are all the relationships between production, distribution of wealth and investment that are to review.

C – Distinction of the debt

The detailed examination of the role of the debt on growth assumes to distinguish two debts:

(1) the debts weighing directly on the growth, because these are households, businesses or Governments who get them, we’ll talk to their subject of debt non-financial;2) debt of the financial sector debts of financial firms, emissions of shares of mutual funds and actions. Could challenge us the combination of mutual funds and shares under the terms of debt. The important thing is for us together to better can then differentiate between them. Let’s look at our two curves.

It is fundamental to note that the debt-GDP ratio non-financiere translated the following fact: entre1987 and 2000, GDP was boosted increasingly by non-financial debt, the non-financial debt-to-GDP ratio remains flat during this period.

On the other hand, the debt non-to-GDP ratio made play a leading role in the rapid increase in the non-financial debt in the growth from 2001, the debt non-financial/GDP ratio curve bends strongly upwards.

The economic system was well surréagi from 2000 to the risk of a sustainable slowdown of growth in the USA. The correlation established lowest rate of productive investment down, saturation of the market of services to industry (etc.) is checked.

Non-financial debt by artificially pulling upwards growth has allowed all of these phenomena to be obscured. The crisis has made them resurface in the form of actual unemployment mass, slowing growth and massive debt pulled by public credit.

We also note a very interesting correlation between financial debt reduction phases and periods of recession after 2000. American capitalism and its crisis so well changed nature after this date.

Before studying the phenomenon of correlation between crises and the vagaries of the financial debt, it is one thing. Since 2009, non-financial debt seems more stimulating as strongly as before growth. The debt non-financial/GDP ratio is flat since 2009, mediocre growth benefits more than a growing debt-non financial-to-GDP ratio.

That would bring water to the mills of the Keynesians might argue that the debt of non-financial economic actors is strong enough to revive activity.The contribution of the different debt to GDP growth pushed this thesis: the State had to come to the aid of the indebtedness of households to support activity.

The increase in its contribution to growth is considerable, because it has doubled its total financial debt and debt market in a time record (2008-2013). These margins are now restricted. The contribution of the debt of non-financial enterprises should not make illusion. This increase over long period contribution is accompanied by productive investment declining rate.

Non-financial companies into not debt to accumulate the productive capital. in this case, this debt would be a positive contribution to growth; non-financial companies accumulating financial capital allowing them to withstand the pressure of interest paid and dividends served in very significant accumulation of financial capital, they succeed to reduce the pressure of the financial system on them by improving the balance of financial income (interest and dividends – interest and dividends paid).

One can imagine increasing the federal contribution in support of economic activity, but in this case the expenditure should have been stronger in the past or in the future. The federal State has no means: contrary to common misconception, the United States cannot borrow out of sight. From 2011, the support of the FED to the debt consolidation and the maintenance of interest at a reduced level perfectly illustrates the existence of a federal debt limit.

Federal debt slows down from 2011.

The distinction of types of debts to show what determines the crises and the contractions of the activity. At least until 2008, the phenomenon of rising debt of the financial sector to for financial firms the same function as the debt of non-financial companies. This debt and its evolutions are not correlated with the phases of crises.

The true correlation of debt and the phases of crises appears when considering emission of shares and mutual fund shares. These are developments in net emissions of these two forms of debt that are correlated to the crisis. When we talk of debt, we hear this term in a broad sense: an action is compared with an obligation a permanent debt performance varies with the size of dividends reported during the titles. Mutual funds are funds placed into parts of titles.

The question then is who holds these debts. In the USA holding of shares and investment funds is massively concentrated in the hands of the funds of households in the Top ten. The correlation we see is a correlation between falling emission and the value of financial assets and contraction of emission of shares and mutual fund shares.

Crises have so for engine obvious the value of movable heritage. This value is in the heart of the crisis of the Millennium which has not experienced a fall in the value of housing at this time because of the active role of CSG Fannnie Mae and Freddie Mac to support real estate prices. This role was more playable in 2008 – they were in bankruptcy – what are the movable and immovable property revenues that resulted in a fall in consumption and a general slowdown in the economy.

This drop was offset by social spending which have swelled the consumption of households by 2 points of GDP. What then explains in overgrowth regime the correlation between fall in the value of financial wealth and contraction of economic activity? It is the contraction of the consumption of the rich who lead the economic downturn, and this slowdown weighs on consumption of all other households who suffer and accentuate recessions then.

These are the rich whose revenues have ceased to decline that by the fall of their consumption are the major determinant of the severity of crises; whole economy follows.

D – Two crises and the apparent recovery in the USA: sequence of contraction of activity, training of savings and differential of restart of the 2 Motors of growth.

To understand why the crisis has its origins in the contraction of heritage investment by households in the Top ten (and for a small part of the heritage middle classes), one must understand why this contraction has a strong influence on the growth of GDP.

D-1 households rich and affluent (Top Ten)

Rich and affluent households form heritage from their income. These revenues are divided into two:
(a) the income from capital (business owners income, interest, dividends) and the labour income of the upper layers of employees whose iconic figure is the leader super-cadre.
b) speculative revenues resulting from sale of movable and immovable assets. When a crisis leads to a contraction of speculative revenues – mainly financial – it is logical that revenues from disposals of assets decline very strongly.
The rich and affluent household consumption shrinks the part of speculative income that they consumed, on the other hand, of speculative incomes that they can save down also. This is what happened in 2008. Conversely, when the financial system is reached by the crisis, the interest received by the top ten will drop also. This is what happened in 2008 and after.

The share of consumption that interests may Fund is reached, the reaction of households is to reduce the latter and make savings on interest fueling consumption.

But continue, this drop in the consumption of the wealthy households is transmitted to the economy, the economic downturn penalizes turn dividends and the thousand and one form of incentive of the supercadres as much as revenues from business owners who suffer the effects of the slowdown in the economy.

Incident credit of the subprime crisis and the bankruptcy of the GSE affecting in turn the real estate credit, the logic of the rich and affluent households is dropping heavily their consumption and redo everything as quickly from savings. The reduction in emissions of debt in the form of action or mutual fund reflects then everything just by the speed at which reduces the share of the income of wealthy households and rich, these households are indeed affected in their production as much as in their revenues revenues by disposals of assets.

Simultaneously, there is contraction of the deficit outside because of the decline in the share of income that feeds this deficit by gains speculative which are ultimately generated by the country’s indebtedness.

D-2: households in the Low 90

Households in the Low 90 undergo a series of shocks. The effects on the economy of the judgment of credit that penalises the creation of wealth (real estate credit pulling the construction, consumer credit growth, credit to the purposes of months of more fragile carriers) in addition to the slowdown in consumption of the Top Ten.

Cascading of the crisis effects are less rapidly transmitted to the income of the Low 90 as the tumble of speculative incomes and production of income in the Top ten. Growth very much supported by the generalized debt penalizes later and longer Low 90 households.

They therefore reduce their consumption later and more lastingly, their reformation of savings is also later and longer. What affects most reduce their consumption, is unemployment, which explains that the State must intervene by making strong deficits of social accounts, is that contraction of the 90 Low consumption and savings are more difficult to absorb for the large mass of Americans.

Accordingly, Treasury avoids a crumbling general and sustainable consumption of household with very negative effects on activity and prices. D-

3 differentiation of phases.

The FED and Treasury policy provide a remediation to the crisis, but this remediation seems fragile, uncertain and reversible if private debt does not take the relay of the debt of non-financial economic actors, households in the low 90 in mind.

Support from the FED to the value of financial and real estate assets has the merit to re-inflate speculative values to reinvigorate the capital gains. The action of the Treasury to support economic activity tends to benefit first to the supercadres and the income of the capital excluding interest payments, interest rates and financial market activity being too low.

Supercadres – less affected by unemployment and interested financially are the first to benefit from growth in credit maintained by a State that is the engine of growth due to lack of better public debt.

The artificial appreciation of heritage tends to accelerate the recovery of the rich and affluent household consumption. So, these are the top ten households who are recovering to consume income from asset disposals reborn thanks to the rise in the price of financial wealth.

Revaluation of assets leads also to consume their production income and reduce their savings; It is them that support new growth and dig the external deficit by a rapid return to consumerism widening external deficits.

This ability to bounce the Top ten – through policy, the couple FED treasure – explains a noticeable difference with the 2000s. If the emissions of debt contraction phase is shorter during the crisis of 2008-2009, it is that the crisis has resulted in a much more energetic, quick and massive public intervention during the crisis of the Millennium. This intervention has mainly referred to support securities that are at the heart of consumerism of the Top ten.

After the crisis of the Millennium, the GSE Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been tasked to support the real estate sector due to a slower rise in securities. Compared to the Top ten, households in the Low 90 remain behind.

In the sequence of recovery, phenomena inherent in the underaccumulation of capital tend to make long, uncertain and painful return to growth. The indebtedness of households in the Low 90 can be found high levels due to unemployment, the housing and the consumer credit are out of shoot growth.

The reformation of savings under the pressure of the fall in the participation rate of the working-age population that poses the most problems. This reformation of the Low savings is that the resumption of the consumption of the top ten is not relayed by dissaving and sufficient consumption to Low 90. Growth is stagnating and the State must remain in operation to maintain a sluggish and uncertain recovery.

Return to widespread consumerism phases are different because the distribution of wealth and income formation are very different. The sequence of the recovery which should see all American households consumed suffers from an inevitable phase.

In such a case, the investment cannot that target productivity increases and penalise employment, the distribution of income accentuate inequalities and make late restart of the consumption of all households Americans.

Conclusion

This course leads to a paradoxical conclusion: it is the exaggerated enrichment of the Top ten and the distribution of speculative income as part of a heritage growth which are the cause of the correlation between growth of financial debt and crisis. To try to save this model of growth, it was necessary to intervene massively couple FED-Treasury to organize a very problematic exit.

The failure of a redistribution of income option is that it is politically unthinkable – it is the rich who hold the power in the USA. Worse still, the dynamics of growth assumes a continuous debt that is the counterpart to an underaccumulation of capital. Therefore, it is not possible out of the pattern of growth in debt without breaking sustainable growth.

Output of crisis adopted by the USA option runs the risk of reproducing a more serious than the 2008-2009 crisis, because this time around the State and the FED will no longer play their role of Savior. Indeed, Top ten consumption depends largely on an illusion maintained by the FED: the artificial valuation of movable and immovable heritage resulting in redistribution of speculative capital gains – accumulative or consumables – and the promise of the future realisation of capital gains virtual or actual support the consumption of the top ten, which accounts most of the proceeds of growth.

Owing to the lack of robust consumption of Low 90, the US upturn could have lasted only a few years at the price of a growing deficit and a great deterioration in the balance sheet of the EDF. The Treasury reduces debt? Growth slows down immediately (0.1 T 1 2014 against 2.6 to T-4 2013, 4.1 to T – 3, T-2 2.5 and 1.1 to T-1 BEA NIPA T. 1.1.1) The growth has not found a sufficiently robust to restart consumption engine.

The risk of a relapse is not a view of the mind. Our last graph indeed shows a re-expansion of the debt resulting from the issuance of debt and mutual funds shares. This spectacular recovery could have explosive effects on the U.S. economy in the event of a new financial crisis inducing a brutal decline in the value of financial (and incidentally estate) heritage held by rich and affluent households.

The consumption of the Top ten would parallel indeed very quickly to the low 90. We will not do a classic peroration on the uncertainties of a Keynesian policies, we presented our objections in the body of this text, it is not useful to repeat?

Laisser un commentaire

Entrez vos coordonnées ci-dessous ou cliquez sur une icône pour vous connecter:

Logo WordPress.com

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte WordPress.com. Déconnexion / Changer )

Image Twitter

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte Twitter. Déconnexion / Changer )

Photo Facebook

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte Facebook. Déconnexion / Changer )

Photo Google+

Vous commentez à l'aide de votre compte Google+. Déconnexion / Changer )

Connexion à %s